Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gignoux, Jeremie; Menendez, Marta
• 署名单位: Paris School of Economics; INRAE; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.08.004
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 26-44
• 关键词: natural disasters; earthquakes; Rural Indonesia; PRODUCTIVITY; welfare; creative destruction; poverty traps; Aid and reconstruction

摘要

We examine the long-term effects on individual economic outcomes of a set of earthquakes - numerous, large, but mostly not extreme - that occurred in rural Indonesia since 1985. Using longitudinal individual-level data from large-scale household surveys, together with precise measures of local ground tremors obtained from a US Geological Survey database, we identify the effects of earthquakes, exploiting the quasi-random spatial and temporal nature of their distribution. Affected individuals experience short-term economic losses but recover in the medium run (after 2-5 years), and even exhibit income and welfare gains in the long term (6-12 years). The stocks of productive assets, notably in farms, get reconstituted and public infrastructures are improved, seemingly partly through external aid, allowing productivity to recover. These findings tend to discount the presence of poverty traps and exhibit the potential long-term benefits from well-designed post-disaster interventions in contexts where disasters primarily affect physical assets. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.