GREAT MODERATION AND GREAT RECESSION: FROM PLAIN SAILING TO STORMY SEAS?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dolores Gadea, Maria; Gomez-Loscos, Ana; Perez-Quiros, Gabriel
• 署名单位: University of Zaragoza; Banco de Espana; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12337
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 2297-2321
• 关键词: us output volatility; business-cycle; structural-changes; time-series; parameter; decline; tests; MODEL; inventories; instability

摘要

Many have argued that the Great Recession of 2008 marks the end of the reduction in output volatility known as the Great Moderation. This article shows that this is not the case through an empirical analysis. Output volatility remains subdued despite the output loss of the Great Recession. This finding has important implications for policymaking because we also find that a lower volatility of output is associated with slower recoveries.