THE RETURN TO COLLEGE: SELECTION AND DROPOUT RISK

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hendricks, Lutz; Leukhina, Oksana
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12297
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1077-1102
• 关键词: borrowing constraints; academic-performance; higher-education; life-cycle; credit constraints; parental transfers; option value; earnings; students; ability

摘要

This article studies the effect of graduating from college on lifetime earnings. We develop a quantitative model of college choice with uncertain graduation. Departing from much of the literature, we model in detail how students progress through college. This allows us to parameterize the model using transcript data. College transcripts reveal substantial and persistent heterogeneity in students' credit accumulation rates that are strongly related to graduation outcomes. From these data, the model infers a large ability gap between college graduates and high school graduates that accounts for 59% of the college lifetime earnings premium.