HOUSING PRICE AND FUNDAMENTALS IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF THE BEIJING MARKET

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Han, Bing; Han, Lu; Zhu, Guozhong
• 署名单位: University of Toronto; Peking University; University of Alberta
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12316
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1653-1677
• 关键词: risk; LAND; DYNAMICS; search; GROWTH; boom

摘要

This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.