Estimating development resilience: A conditional moments-based approach

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cisse, Jennifer Denno; Barrett, Christopher B.
• 署名单位: United States Agency for International Development (USAID); Cornell University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.04.002
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 272-284
• 关键词: Panel data; Poverty dynamics; resilience; RISK

摘要

Despite significant spending on 'resilience' by international development agencies, no theory-based method for estimating or measuring development resilience has yet been developed. This paper introduces an econometric strategy for estimating individual or household-level development resilience from panel data. Estimation of multiple conditional moments of a welfare function-itself specified to permit potentially nonlinear path dynamics-enables the computation and forecasting of individual-specific conditional probabilities of satisfying a normative minimum standard of living. We then develop a decomposable resilience measure that enables aggregation of the individual-specific estimates to targetable subpopulation- and population-level measures. We illustrate the method empirically using household panel data from pastoralist communities in northern Kenya. The results demonstrate the method and its potential for targeting resilience-building interventions.