FISCAL STIMULUS WITH LEARNING-BY-DOING

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: D'Alessandro, Antonello; Fella, Giulio; Melosi, Leonardo
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of London; Queen Mary University London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12391
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1413-1432
• 关键词: government expenditure; shocks; POLICY; real; transmission; preferences; prices

摘要

Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregression analysis, we document that an increase in government purchases raises private consumption, the real wage, and total factor productivity (TFP) while reducing inflation. These three facts are hard to reconcile with both neoclassical and New Keynesian models. We extend a standard New Keynesian model to allow for skill accumulation through past work experience. An increase in government spending increases hours and induces skill accumulation and higher measured TFP and real wages in subsequent periods. Future marginal costs fall lowering expected inflation and, through the monetary policy rule, the real interest rate. Consumption increases as a result.