A poor means test? Econometric targeting in Africa

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brown, Caitlin; Ravallion, Martin; van de Walle, Dominique
• 署名单位: Central European University; Georgetown University; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.05.004
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 109-124
• 关键词: poverty; Cash transfers; Proxy means test; targeting; AFRICA

摘要

Proxy-means tests (PMTs) are popular for poverty-targeting with imperfect information. In a widely-used version, a regression for log consumption calibrates a PMT score based on covariates, which is then implemented for targeting out-of-sample. The performance of various PMT methods is assessed using data for nine African countries. Standard PMTs help filter out the non-poor, but exclude many poor people, thus diminishing the impact on poverty. Poverty-focused econometric methods such as using quantile regression generally do better. We also characterize the optimal informationally-feasible solution for poverty targeting and compare it to econometric methods. Even with a budget sufficient to eliminate poverty with full information, none of the targeting methods studied bring the poverty rate below about three-quarters of its initial value. The prevailing methods are particularly deficient in reaching the poorest. A basic-income scheme or transfers using a simple demographic scorecard often do as well, or even better, in reducing poverty.