One more resource curse: Dutch disease and export concentration

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bahar, Dany; Santos, Miguel A.
• 署名单位: Brookings Institution; Institute of Advanced Studies in Administration (IESA)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.01.002
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 102-114
• 关键词: Concentration; diversification; exports; natural resources; Dutch disease; Capital intensity

摘要

Economists have long discussed the negative effect of Dutch disease episodes on the non-resource tradable sector as a whole, but little has been said on its impact on the composition of the non-resource export sector. This paper fills this gap by exploring to what extent concentration of a country's non-resource export basket is determined by their exports of natural resources. We present a theoretical framework that shows how upward pressure in wages caused by a resource windfall results in higher export concentration. We then document two robust empirical findings consistent with the theory. First, using data on discovery of oil and gas fields and of commodity prices as sources of exogenous variation, we find that countries with larger shares of natural resources in exports have more concentrated non-resource export baskets. Second, we find capital-intensive exports tend to dominate the export basket of countries prone to Dutch disease episodes.