Foreign aid and growth: A Sp P-VAR analysis using satellite sub-national data for Uganda

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Civelli, Andrea; Horowitz, Andrew; Teixeira, Arilton
• 署名单位: University of Arkansas System; University of Arkansas Fayetteville
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.05.001
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 50-67
• 关键词: Official development assistance; Aid impact; Regional economic growth and development; Satellite nighttime luminosity; Spatial panel VAR

摘要

We develop a measurement strategy for the impact of foreign aid based on a regional spatial panel vector-autoregressive model (Sp P-VAR). We illustrate the strategy using Ugandan districts. Data for the regional units (ADM2) is assembled combining satellite sources for socio-economic activity, geo-located aid disbursements, and traditional household surveys. We find statistically significant positive and persistent effects of aid shocks on nighttime luminosity. Mapping nightlights to economic activity, the results suggest that the economic magnitude of these effects is small, but significant with a multiplier between 4 and 5 in the long-run. The VAR addresses endogeneity concerns associated with non-random aid assignment.