The international credit channel of US monetary policy transmission to developing countries: Evidence from trade data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lin, Shu; Ye, Haichun
• 署名单位: Chinese University of Hong Kong; Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.01.007
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 33-41
• 关键词: International transmission of US monetary policy; International credit channel; TRADE; Financial vulnerability; Developing countries

摘要

In a large sector-level bilateral trade dataset, we find robust evidence supporting a broad international credit channel of U.S. monetary policy transmission to developing countries. We show that U.S. monetary policy has a significant effect on the sectoral composition of developing countries' exports. Financially more vulnerable sectors have a significantly more negative exposure of their trade to a tight U.S. monetary policy, especially in financially less developed exporting countries or during significant U.S. tightening periods. Moreover, we identify both a monetary policy dependence mechanism and a financial dollarization mechanism through which U.S. monetary policy can influence the sectoral composition of developing countries' exports.