INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING MARKETS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rothert, Jacek
• 署名单位: United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; United States Naval Academy
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12439
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 753-781
• 关键词: exchange-rate; economies; PRODUCTIVITY; shocks; terms; TRADE; rates

摘要

I document cyclical behavior of real exchange rates (RERs) in emerging and developed economies: stronger RER procyclicality coincides with larger relative volatility of consumption and more countercyclical trade balance. I then reevaluate the sources of fluctuations in emerging economies using an international business cycle model estimated to match the behavior of the RERs. Interest rate shocks, without any frictions, account for most of output fluctuations. This result is driven by imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, which dampens the impact of trend shocks and accentuates the impact of interest rate shocks on output and consumption.