THE INTERGENERATIONAL MORTALITY TRADE-OFF OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN POLICIES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ma, Lin; Shapira, Gil; de Walque, Damien; Quy-Toan Do; Friedman, Jed; Levchenko, Andrei A.
• 署名单位: Singapore Management University; The World Bank; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12574
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1427-1468
• 关键词: case-fatality rate; infant-mortality; mainland china; wave

摘要

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.