THE COST OF GREENING STIMULUS: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF VEHICLE SCRAPPAGE PROGRAMS*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Li, Shanjun; Liu, Youming; Wei, Chao
• 署名单位: Cornell University; Bank of Canada; George Washington University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12590
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1561-1594
• 关键词: fuel-economy standards; EFFICIENCY; MODEL; cash; replacement; Durables; IMPACT

摘要

This article investigates the potential trade-off between the stimulus and environmental objectives in the context of the U.S. vehicle scrappage program. We develop and estimate a dynamic model of vehicle ownership and conduct a counterfactual analysis comparing the implemented policy with alternative designs. We find the cost of the implemented policy 25% higher in terms of induced sales and 64% higher in terms of induced spending than a policy design without the environmental objective. The findings serve as a caution for green stimulus programs to address both climate change and the economic crisis from the ongoing pandemic.