The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping economic geography in Central Asia?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bird, Julia; Lebrand, Mathilde; Venables, Anthony J.
• 署名单位: The World Bank; University of Oxford; Monash University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102441
• 发表日期: 2020
• 关键词: regional integration; Transport infrastructure; Spatial modeling; Economic geography; Central Asia

摘要

This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and their connectivity to each other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to around 3 percent if there are localization economies of scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas developing clusters of economic activity with income increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline.