A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bandiera, Luca; Tsiropoulos, Vasileios
• 署名单位: The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102495
• 发表日期: 2020
• 关键词: Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal risks; Contingent liabilities; Investment and growth

摘要

This paper proposes a framework to assess the impact of infrastructure investment expected under the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) on the debt vulnerabilities of countries located on BRI transport and connectivity corridors. In the absence of comprehensive data on investments and financing terms, key assumptions have been made estimate: i) the amounts and terms of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt financing for BRI investment, size and sectoral type of identified BRI investment, and iii) expected growth impact. BRI debt financing pected to significantly increase PPG debt in several countries. The paper assesses the debt vulnerability from investment in the medium term. In the medium term, defined as the period 2019-2023, debt financing of investment is expected to be fully disbursed while the full growth impact of BRI related infrastructure is entirely realized. In this initial phase, more than 50 percent of assessed BRI-recipient countries are estimated face elevated debt vulnerabilities post-BRI, if BRI has only a limited impact on overall growth. Most of these countries have already high debt vulnerabilities before BRI investment.