HANK Beyond FIRE: Amplification, Forward Guidance, and Belief Shocks

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Gallegos, Jose-Elias
• 署名单位: Banco de Espana
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.70007
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: monetary-policy; social value; INFORMATION; prices

摘要

Monetary policy transmission in the benchmark New Keynesian (NK) model hinges on the Full Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) assumption, especially via indirect general equilibrium (GE) effects. This paper relaxes FIRE by introducing noisy information into a Heterogeneous-Agent NK model with financial frictions. Noisy information dampens amplification by muting GE effects, aligning model dynamics with empirical evidence, and resolving the forward guidance puzzle. It also broadens the determinacy region for policy rules. Finally, I explore belief shocks, showing that transitory animal spirits can have persistent effects, offering new insights into the macroeconomic consequences of information frictions.