Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Guler, Bulent; Michaud, Amanda
• 署名单位: Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.70016
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: labor-market; crime; unemployment; education; MODEL

摘要

We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals' past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the US experience after 1980. Increased inequality and declining employment accompany these changes, with unequal impacts across generations.