AGE DISCONTINUITY AND NONEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT POLICY EVALUATION THROUGH THE LENS OF JOB SEARCH THEORY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Decreuse, Bruno; Wilemme, Guillaume
• 署名单位: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Aix-Marseille Universite; University of Leicester
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12726
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 259-286
• 关键词: optimal unemployment-insurance; regression-discontinuity; duration; EMPLOYMENT; identification

摘要

Recent papers use regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) based on age discontinuity to evaluate social assistance (SA) and unemployment insurance (UI) extension policies. Job search theory predicts that such designs generate biased estimates of the policy-relevant treatment effect. Owing to market frictions, people below the age threshold modify their search behavior in expectation of future eligibility. We use a job search model to quantify the biases on various datasets in the literature. The impacts of SA benefits on employment are underestimated, whereas those of UI extensions on nonemployment duration are overestimated. The article provides insights for RDD evaluations of age-discontinuous policies.