The Unemployment-Risk Channel in Business-Cycle Fluctuations

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Broer, Tobias; Druedahl, Jeppe; Harmenberg, Karl; Oeberg, Erik
• 署名单位: Paris School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Copenhagen; University of Oslo; BI Norwegian Business School; Uppsala University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12773
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: equilibrium unemployment; job destruction; precautionary savings; technology shocks; cyclical behavior; LABOR; search; MODEL; Heterogeneity; transmission

摘要

The unemployment-risk channel (URC) amplifies an initial contraction through a reduction in consumption demand by workers who fear unemployment. Crucial for this are the dynamics of job separations and firm hiring. In US data, the job-finding rate responds slower to identified macroeconomic shocks than the separation rate, but accounts for a similar share of the unemployment response. We calibrate a tractable heterogeneous-agent new-Keynesian model with endogenous separations and sluggish vacancy creation to match these facts. The share of output fluctuations due to the URC is twice as large as in a standard model with exogenous separations and free entry.