Policy Contagion: What Do We Learn From Financial Reforms?

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Li, Nan; Papageorgiou, Chris; Xu, Tong; Zha, Tao
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12777
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: cultural-change; diffusion; GLOBALIZATION; CONVERGENCE; beliefs; cycles; shocks

摘要

We use financial reforms as a case study to understand the temporal clustering of policy changes across countries, shedding light on the broader phenomenon of global policy contagion. We construct a comprehensive database of domestic financial reforms spanning 90 countries from 1973 to 2014. Using this dataset, we estimate a semistructural model that incorporates key factors identified in the literature. We find that (1) geopolitical influence and cross-country learning drove the global surge in reforms during the 1990s, and (2) reversals of financial reforms in developing countries after the global financial crisis reflected shifting beliefs about their growth effects.