When in Doubt, Tax More Progressively? Uncertainty and Progressive Income Taxation
成果类型：
Article; Early Access
署名作者：
Chang, Minsu; Wu, Chunzan
署名单位：
Seoul National University (SNU); Peking University
刊物名称：
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
ISSN/ISSBN：
0020-6598
DOI：
10.1111/iere.70000
发表日期：
2025
关键词：
摘要：
We study the optimal income tax problem under parameter uncertainty about household preferences and wage dynamics. We derive conditions characterizing how such uncertainty affects optimal tax policy. To quantify the effect, we estimate a life-cycle model using US data and a Bayesian approach. Parameter uncertainty makes the optimal tax more progressive, increasing the marginal tax rate gap between high- and low-income households by 5.5 percentage points. This effect is primarily driven by uncertainty about the wage process. We also find that parameter uncertainty imposes sizable welfare costs through the income tax channel alone.
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