Quantifying the Macroeconomic Impact of Credit Expansions

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Boar, Corina; Storesletten, Kjetil; Knowles, Matthew; Wang, Yicheng
• 署名单位: New York University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Peking University; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen)
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.70024
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: monetary-policy; business cycles; fiscal stimulus; entry; entrepreneurship; INVESTMENT; frictions; DYNAMICS; EXIT

摘要

Credit expansions stimulate the economy. We quantify the contribution of households versus firms for this stimulus. Using causal evidence from the quasi-natural experiment of bank deregulation across US states, we estimate a small open-economy heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. Deregulation generated lower borrowing costs. Firms' responses to such shocks account for most of the long-run rise in output and employment. For short-run dynamics, firms and households are equally important. Firms' large role is identified by an empirical observation: output and employment expanded gradually following deregulation. In the model, lower interest rates generate increasing capital stocks which in turn increases economic activity gradually.