Liquidity crises, liquidity lines and sovereign risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Onder, Yasin Kursat
• 署名单位: Ghent University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102772
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: Sovereign default; liquidity shocks; Liquidity Swap lines; sudden stops

摘要

This paper investigates the trade-offs of introducing an extra line of credit in an emergency situation with a quantitative sovereign default model. I show that temporary access to these lines for up to 3 percent of mean annual income during low liquidity periods yields long-term effects with a lower cost of borrowing but with incentives to accumulate higher debt. Permanent access, however, has only short-lived effects because temporal arrangement better completes the markets and induces market discipline as the government worries about rollover risk once the low liquidity period ends. I also present in an event analysis that Mexico's arrangement of swap lines with the Federal Reserve amid the global financial crisis in 2008 helped avoid a potential debt crisis.