The effect of air pollution on migration: Evidence from China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chen, Shuai; Oliva, Paulina; Zhang, Peng
• 署名单位: Zhejiang University; University of Southern California; National Bureau of Economic Research; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102833
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: Air pollution; migration; human capital; Avoidance behavior

摘要

This paper looks at the effects of air pollution on migration in China using changes in the average strength of thermal inversions over five-year periods as a source of exogenous variation for medium-run air pollution levels. Our findings suggest that air pollution is responsible for large changes in inflows and outflows of migration in China. Specifically, we find that a 10 percent increase in air pollution, holding everything else constant, is capable of reducing population through net outmigration by about 2.8 percent in a given county. We find that these inflows are primarily driven by well-educated people at the beginning of their professional careers. We also find a strong gender asymmetry in the response of mid-age adults that suggests families are splitting across counties to protect vulnerable members of the household. Our results are robust to different specifications, including a spatial lag model that accounts for localized migration spillovers and spatially correlated pollution shocks.