Weapons and war: The effect of arms transfers on internal conflict

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gallea, Quentin
• 署名单位: University of Lausanne
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103001
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Instrumental variables (IV) estimation; Internal conflict; migration; Rebellion; Arms imports

摘要

Despite the fact that weapons are necessary for conflicts, it remains unclear if weapons availability itself causes conflict. I use historical links between arms exporters and importers, and shocks to conflict engagement of the exporters, to instrument the volume of arms imports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that arms imports in Africa increase the likelihood of internal conflict, in particular one-sided violence, the number of fighter and civilian deaths, as well as the number of refugees fleeing the country. The results suggest that arms exporters have the ability to influence violence with their trade. Even if stopping exports might only postpone violence until more weapons are found, the momentary reduced violence could open a window to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful resolution.