Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cantelmo, Alessandro; Melina, Giovanni; Papageorgiou, Chris
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103037
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: natural disasters; climate change; DSGE; Resilient capital; International aid

摘要

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 5.3 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be small, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience before the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid after their realization.