Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Yokoo, Hide-Fumi; Arimura, Toshi H.; Chattopadhyay, Mriduchhanda; Katayama, Hajime
• 署名单位: Hitotsubashi University; Waseda University; University of Petroleum & Energy Studies (UPES); Hitotsubashi University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103000
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Belief; Cooking fuel choice; Health risk; INDIA; Risk misperception; Subjective probabilistic expectation

摘要

We investigate the accuracy of the perceptions of health risks in India. The context of our study is the risk of developing physical symptoms related to household air pollution caused by cooking. Using field data collected from 588 respondents in 17 villages in West Bengal, we regress the probability of symptoms on fuel choices to predict respondent-specific health risk changes. The estimated risks, which we treat as objective risks, are then compared with the corresponding subjective probabilistic beliefs, which are elicited by an interactive method with visual aids. Our results show that, on average, the respondents slightly underestimate the change in risk when switching from cooking with firewood to cooking with liquefied petroleum gas, even though their beliefs are qualitatively correct. The results further show that risk misperception is associated only with religion among individuals' observed characteristics, suggesting that their unobserved characteristics play a substantial role in risk misperception.