Public sentiment in times of terror

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Amarasinghe, Ashani
• 署名单位: University of Sydney
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103058
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Terrorism; discontent; GOVERNMENT; Leader

摘要

How do public sentiments towards the government change following terror attacks? The literature has traditionally answered this question using temporally aggregated voting data. This paper proposes an alternative, fine-grained approach to explore the short term dynamics underlying public sentiments. I first use high-frequency, media-reported event data to quantify Public Discontent, for 135 countries, over the period 2002-2020. Comparing the change in Public Discontent in country-months with successful terror attacks against country-months with failed terror attacks, I find that the average level of Public Discontent increases by approximately 11% in the 11 months following a successful terror attack. Information on government capability, political institutions and exposure to violence are incorporated in the response. Interestingly, characteristics of the national leader, such as gender, age, length of tenure and military experience, also affect the public response. Findings highlight short term dynamics of public sentiments as a critical component in shaping the citizen-state relationship.