Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia's peace agreement

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bernal, Carolina; Prem, Mounu; Vargas, Juan F.; Ortiz, Monica
• 署名单位: Universidad del Rosario; University of Turin
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103119
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Firm entry; CONFLICT; Peace agreement; colombia

摘要

The end of internal conflict is often shaped by political uncertainty and threats of violence recurrence. This implies that the effects of conflict termination on economic activity and specifically entrepreneurship can go in either direction, and we know little about this relationship. Studying Colombia's recent peace agreement with the FARC guerrilla, and using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we document that dynamics of entrepreneurship in traditionally violent areas closely mapped the politics that surrounded the peace agreement. When the agreement was imminent after a 5-decade conflict and violence had plummeted, local investors from all economic sectors established new firms and created jobs. Instead, when the agreement was rejected in a referendum, the party that promoted this rejection raised to power, and violence re-escalated, the rate of firms' creation rapidly reversed.