Social distancing and COVID-19 under violence: Evidence from Colombia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Martin, Diego A.; Romero, Dario A.
• 署名单位: Harvard University; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103313
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: covid-19; Social distancing; Lockdowns; Massacres

摘要

Did violence increase social distancing and decrease COVID-19 cases? We investigated the effects of massacres on social distancing and subsequent impacts on COVID-19 cases in Colombia. Using an augmented synthetic control method model, we find that massacres reduced human mobility toward parks by six percentage points compared to unaffected areas. However, we did not find significant changes in workplace mobility. Moreover, alterations in social interactions caused by the violence had minimal effects on the spread of COVID-19. Following the occurrence of the first massacre, there was a decrease in 35 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the subsequent four months, with no evidence of changes in COVID-19 deaths. By leveraging an exogenous shock unrelated to the fear of the disease or its previous levels, we demonstrate the effect of social distancing and offer insights into social dynamics and public health.