Market timing, farmer expectations, and liquidity constraints

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Albuquerque, Rui; de Araujo, Bruno; Brandao-Marques, Luis; Mosse, Gerivasia; de Vletter, Pippy; Zavale, Helder
• 署名单位: Boston College; European Corporate Governance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Eduardo Mondlane University; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103268
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: liquidity constraints; Price expectations; Product-market timing; Storage conditions

摘要

We use data on price expectations from a survey of randomly sampled smallholder farmers in Mozambique. Across all crops, farmers report selling on average within three weeks of harvest, at lower prices than expected later in the season. Liquidity constrained farmers sell their harvest 50% faster than unconstrained farmers, but they increase their storage time in response to higher expected future prices. We address causality using an instrumental variables approach exploiting abnormal rainfall from cyclones Idai and Kenneth. We develop a model on market timing and its relation to price expectations and liquidity constraints.