Do minimum wage hikes lead to employment destruction? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Argentina

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Abbate, Nicolas; Jimenez, Bruno
• 署名单位: National University of La Plata; National University of La Plata; New York University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103558
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Minimum wage; regression discontinuity design

摘要

In this study, we examine the impact of eight minimum wage increases in Argentina during the early 21st century by analyzing administrative records of registered employment. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design, we compare job separation rates between a group affected by the minimum wage hikes and a control group slightly out of their legal scope. Our findings indicate that, overall, these minimum wage hikes had no significant impact on separation rates. However, the 2008 increase triggered a 4.8 percentage point (19%) decrease in separations, casting doubt on the disemployment effects of minimum wages. Overall, these findings suggest that during economic upswings, minimum wage increases may have little to no adverse impact on job destruction.