Industrial policy in a new era: Government venture capital in the US-China trade war

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chen, Y. Joy; Gong, Robin Kaiji; Li, Jinlin
• 署名单位: Renmin University of China; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103599
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: venture capital; Trade war; Industrial policy; INNOVATION; CHINA

摘要

Government venture capital (VC) is a core component of China's industrial policy framework. This study documents a novel feature of government VC under geopolitical tensions: During the 2018-2019 US-China trade war, government VC funds sustained their investments in manufacturing industries targeted by the U.S. tariffs, in contrast to an overall withdrawal of private capital. This persistence had important implications for startup financing and innovation. Startups heavily exposed to tariff shocks (1) were more likely to secure follow-on financing from government VC, especially if they had stronger innovation track records and (2) produced more patents if their localities had higher ex ante government VC activity. Collectively, these findings suggest that government VC, as an emerging instrument of industrial policy, helped underpin the resilience of China's high-tech industries in the face of geopolitical risks.