The HIPC initiative and China's emergence as a lender: post hoc or propter hoc?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cordella, Tito; Cufre, Maia; Presbitero, Andrea F.
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University; Northwestern University; International Monetary Fund; Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103632
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: sovereign debt; INTERNATIONAL LENDING; CHINA; Debt relief; geoeconomics

摘要

Twenty years after the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief initiative, debt levels in low-income countries are rising again, renewing sustainability concerns. The prevailing view suggests that China and other emerging lenders exploited the HIPC initiative to expand lending. Using a synthetic control method to generate a counterfactual, we find that, contrary to this narrative, China and other emerging lenders reduced net lending after debt relief; only multilateral creditors increased it. Furthermore, we find no evidence to support the claim that debt relief encourages lending to political allies. Overall, debt relief seems to have had a limited influence on subsequent lending patterns.