Police autonomy, data-driven strategies, and violence: Evidence from Brazil's policing reform

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Parfitt, Rafael; Pantaleao, Bruno; Kopittke, Alberto
• 署名单位: Getulio Vargas Foundation; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103603
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Public security reform; Results-based management; VIOLENCE; BRAZIL

摘要

We evaluate the impact of a results-based management program in Brazil designed to improve police service delivery through more efficient resource allocation, data-driven personnel deployment, and targeted interventions in high-violence areas. Exploiting the staggered implementation of the program across 2,355 municipalities in nine Brazilian states over two decades, we estimate its causal effect on homicide rates using a staggered difference-in-differences approach. We find that the reform substantially reduced homicide rates following implementation. The effects are particularly pronounced among vulnerable subgroups, such as Black individuals and those with low education levels. Additionally, we document larger reductions in homicides in municipalities with higher baseline levels of violence, suggesting that results-based police management is especially effective in the most violent areas.