Saving an old regime with new elites? The unintended effects of co-opting foreign-educated councilors in China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lin, Chu; Sun, Wei; Wang, Chengli
• 署名单位: Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; University of Macau
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103580
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Local council; Co-optation; Foreign-educated elites; Popular revolts; CHINA

摘要

How does the co-optation of foreign-educated elites influence local stability? This study exploits a quasiexperimental setting created by the establishment of provincial Consultative Bureaus in China in 1909 to examine the political consequences of integrating Japan-educated returnees into local governance. Using an original, prefecture-by-month panel dataset across 262 prefectures from 1901 to 1911, we find that co-opting foreign-educated elites produced unintended effects: it significantly reduced revolutionary armed struggles (the revolution effect), but simultaneously increased peasant revolts (the revolt effect). Mechanism analysis suggests that returnees advocated reforms that intensified local tax burdens-particularly in economically strained regions-provoking peasant revolts. Our findings underscore a critical trade-off in the modernization efforts of autocratic regimes: when elites' reformist ambitions outpace the adaptive capacity of society, wellintended reforms can generate unintended backlash.