Flood shocks, heterogeneous risk exposure, and housing market dynamics in China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zhao, Yu; Yang, Yichen; Zhang, Ning
• 署名单位: Shandong University; Shandong University; Yonsei University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103581
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Flood shocks; Heterogeneous risk exposure; Real estate market; CHINA

摘要

This paper analyzes the economic consequences of flood shocks on housing markets in China. By combining detailed housing transaction records with granular geospatial-environmental information, we document robust evidence of heterogeneous impacts of flooding within local housing markets. Specifically, transaction prices and volumes decline in low-lying areas, while prices increase but volumes remain stable in high-elevation areas. These asymmetric responses are largely attributable to the risk-averse location choices of buyers and the shifts in the geographic composition of sellers' listings. Furthermore, we find evidence of spillovers, with unmet local demand flowing into adjacent safer markets. A conservative welfare estimation indicates that flood-induced welfare losses from housing markets are considerable-18 times greater than the direct economic damages-and are borne almost entirely by buyers. Our findings also highlight the crucial role of government intervention in mitigating post-disaster market inefficiencies and facilitating a more balanced spatial distribution of welfare.