The chilling effects of unsuccessful antidumping investigations on firm export dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chen, Ming; Chen, Wen; Feng, Ling; Li, Zhiyuan; Swenson, Deborah L.
• 署名单位: Shanghai University of International Business & Economics; Xiamen University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics; Fudan University; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103610
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Antidumping investigations; Trade policy uncertainty; firm dynamics

摘要

This paper studies the aftermath of unsuccessful antidumping investigations that failed to achieve positive antidumping findings or antidumping duties against foreign exporters. While failed investigations might be viewed as benign, unsuccessful investigations may nonetheless elevate trade policy uncertainty since investigated products face dramatically increased probabilities of future antidumping investigations. Our analysis of Chinese firm export dynamics following unsuccessful U.S. antidumping investigations between 2000 and 2015 uncovers strong reductions in firm export dynamics-counts of new export entry and incumbent exit in unsuccessfully investigated products are both diminished by U.S. antidumping investigations. The combined effects of these responses lead to drops in the number of active exporters, and declines in export values for the investigated products. Since recent work on firm export dynamics shows how extensive margin changes facilitate improvements in export firm productivity and the product quality enjoyed by consumers, a benign view of unsuccessful antidumping investigations is called into question.