PITFALLS IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE YIELD ON BRITISH CONSULS, 1850-1914
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
KLOVLAND, JT
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
ISSN/ISSBN：
0022-0507
DOI：
10.1017/S0022050700014030
发表日期：
1994
页码：
164-187
关键词：
摘要：
Five pitfalls commonly encountered in estimating the yield on British Consols are identified and discussed herein. The most difficult question is whether Consol prices in the later 1890s reflected expectations of a conversion of the Consol stock in 1923. This is equivalent to asking whether security markets in the 1890s regarded the then extremely low interest rates to be a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Predictions from estimated equations for the yield spread between other high-class investments and Consols are used to determine this question. A corrected monthly series of the yield on Consols between 1850 and 1914 is presented.
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