Did late-nineteenth-century US tariffs promote infant industries? Evidence from the tinplate industry
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
ISSN/ISSBN：
0022-0507
发表日期：
2000
页码：
335-360
关键词：
摘要：
Did late-nineteenth-century U.S. tariffs promote infant industries? After earlier failures, the tinplate industry became established and flourished after receiving protection with the 1890 McKinley tariff. Treating producers' entry and exit decisions as endogenous, a probability model is estimated to determine the conditions under which domestic tinplate production will occur. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, without the McKinley duties, domestic tinplate production would have arisen about a decade later as U.S. iron and steel input prices converged with those in Britain. Although the tariff accelerated the industry's development, welfare calculations suggest that protection does not pass a cost-benefit test.