The US sugar program and the Cuban revolution

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Columbia University; University of Vermont
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050704002931
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 673-704
• 关键词: stock-market evidence

摘要

This article argues that one contributing factor to the Cuban Revolution of 1959 was the 1956 revision of U.S. sugar quotas. Its significance has been overlooked because its real economic impact was programmed to occur after 1959. Combining a statistical simulation and an event study of sugar companies' rates of return on equity, we show that the revision had adverse long-run consequences for sugar exports, and that forward-looking investors anticipated them and incorporated them into their valuation of sugar-company stocks after 1953. Further evidence shows that the Batista regime and prominent insurgents understood the vital nature of Cuba's sugar import quota.