Moving Matters: The Effect of Location on Crop Production

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S002205071500008X
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 219-249
• 关键词: us agriculture; CLIMATE-CHANGE; hybrid corn; dust bowl; IMPACT; index; LAND

摘要

U.S corn output increased from 1.8 billion bushels in 1879 to 12.7 billion bushels in 2007. Concurrently, the footprint of production changed substantially. Failure to take proper account of movements means that productivity assessments likely misattribute sources of growth and climate change studies likely overestimate impacts. Our new spatial output indexes show that 16 to 21 percent of the increase in U.S. corn output over the 128 years beginning in 1879 was attributable to spatial movement in production. This long-run perspective provides historical precedent for how much agriculture might adjust to future changes in climate and technology.