How Did Britain Democratize? Views from the Sovereign Bond Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harvard University; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050715000017
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1-29
• 关键词: revolution; GOVERNMENT; suffrage; models; REFORM

摘要

To assess competing theories of democratization, we analyze British sovereign bond market responses to the 1832, 1867, and 1884 Reform Acts, and to two failed Chartist agitations for reform. Analyses of high-frequency 3 percent consol yield data and historical financial press suggest three conclusions. First, democratic reform episodes were preceded by increases in perceived political risk, comparable to democratizing episodes in other countries. Second, both democratic reform and repression were followed by yield declines. Third, the source of political risk in Britain was both social unrest and political deadlock. Together, the findings challenge the Whig characterization of British democratization as exceptionally risk-free.