Technology Shocks and the Great Depression

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bank of Japan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050716000772
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 909-933
• 关键词: business-cycle; aggregate fluctuations; PRODUCTIVITY; returns; gold; end

摘要

Standard productivity measures indicate large fluctuations in technology during the Great Depression. This article's historical technology series (1892-1966), controlled for aggregation effects, varying input utilization, non-constant returns, and imperfect competition, does not indicate technology regress such that could trigger the downturn. In contrast, technology improvements in the recovery were so rapid that, over the whole Great Depression period, technology growth was highest among pre-WWII decades. This article also finds that output changed little and inputs fell when technology improved in the pre-WWII period. Real-business-cycle models have difficulty in explaining pre-WWII business cycles characterized by such responses.