If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; European Central Bank; Bank of France; University of Cambridge
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050716000589
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 342-386
• 关键词: exchange-rate models; Carry trade; momentum; MARKETS; RISK; heteroskedasticity; LIMITS; rates; franc; fit

摘要

This article explores the risks and returns to currency speculation during the 1920s and 1930s. We study the performance of two well-known technical trading strategies (carry and momentum) and compare them with that of a fundamentals-based trader: John Maynard Keynes. Technical strategies were highly profitable during the 1920s and even outperformed Keynes. In the 1930s, however, both technical strategies and Keynes performed relatively poorly. While our results reveal the existence of profitable opportunities for currency traders in the interwar years, they suggest that such profits were necessary compensation for enduring the substantial risks that all strategies entailed.