Adapting to the Weather: Lessons from US History

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Seoul National University (SNU)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050717000675
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 756-795
• 关键词: global climate-change; birth-weight; ricardian analysis; UNITED-STATES; in-utero; malaria; IMPACT; agriculture; temperature; exposure

摘要

An important unknown in understanding the impact of climate change is the scope of adaptation, which requires observations on historical time scales. We consider how weather across U.S. history (1860-2000) has affected various measures of productivity. Using cross-sectional and panel methods, we document significant responses of agricultural and individual productivity to weather. We find strong effects of hotter and wetter weather early in U.S. history, but these effects have generally been attenuated in recent decades. The results suggest that estimates from a given period may be of limited use in forecasting the longer-term impacts of climate change.