Unpacking the Agricultural Black Box: The Rise and Fall of American Farm Productivity Growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of California System; University of California Davis
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050720000649
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 114-155
• 关键词: united-states agriculture; hybrid corn; IMPACT; TECHNOLOGY; ECONOMICS; returns; prices; output

摘要

Has the golden age of U.S. agricultural productivity growth ended? We analyze the detailed patterns of productivity growth spanning a century of profound changes in American agriculture. We document a substantial slowing of U.S. farm productivity growth, following a late mid-century surge-20 years after the surge and slowdown in U.S. industrial productivity growth. We posit and empirically probe three related explanations for this farm productivity surge-slowdown: the time path of agricultural R&D-driven knowledge stocks; a big wave of technological progress associated with great clusters of inventions; and dynamic aspects of the structural transformation of agriculture, largely completed by 1980.