The Borchardt Hypothesis: A Cliometric Reassessment of Germany's Debt and Crisis during 1930-1932

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: National Taiwan University; Feng Chia University; National Taiwan University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050722000262
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 691-726
• 关键词: great-depression; business-cycle; economic-policy; exchange-rates; ALTERNATIVES; standard; FAILURE; Europe; debate; COSTS

摘要

This research examines whether an alternative exchange rate policy could have mitigated Germany's recession from April 1930 to May 1932, when Heinrich Bruning was Reichskanzler of the Weimar Republic. Using an open-economy dynamic model as our analytical framework, we examine the arguments against adopting the devaluation policy. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a widely held belief-that floating the Reichsmark would have led to high inflation-is unwarranted. Despite Germany's high foreign debt, floating the Reichsmark would have led to less of a decline in both real GDP and employment for the country during the Great Depression.