Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050722000407
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 917-957
• 关键词: UNITED-STATES; spanish flu; influenza; mortality; EPIDEMIC; cities; shocks

摘要

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.