ARE US REGIONAL INCOMES CONVERGING - A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: CARLINO, GA; MILLS, LO
• 署名单位: Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90009-5
• 发表日期: 1993
• 页码: 335-346
• 关键词: analysis of growth; DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE; ECONOMIC GROWTH AND AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY; multiple/simultaneous equation models; time series models

摘要

The time series properties of per-capita income in U.S. regions are tested for consistency with the neoclassical growth model's prediction of per-capita income convergence. Two conditions are required for convergence. Shocks to relative regional per-capita incomes should be temporary (stochastic convergence), and initially poor regions should catch up to rich regions (beta-convergence). We find evidence for stochastic convergence across U.S. regions during the 1929-90 period after allowing for a trend break in 1946. We also find that U.S. regions have achieved beta-convergence. These findings support the neoclassical model's prediction of conditional convergence.